BELÉM, BRAZIL – Forget the slow burn. Forget the usual week of posturing. At COP30, the gloves came off on Day Two. The political pulse of this Amazonian COP is beating fast and loud, translating into a single, clear message from the heart of the crisis: we are out of time for pleasantries. What was meant to be a gentle opening dialogue by the Brazilian Presidency turned into a de facto launch of high-stakes negotiations. Parties arrived locked and loaded, turning a planned exploration into a preview of the battles to come.
The fate of our climate future is hanging on a few critical threads: the integrity of the Paris Agreement’s Article 9.1 on finance, the yawning ambition gap in national climate plans (NDCs) that is pushing 1.5°C out of reach, and the controversial specter of Unilateral Trade Measures (UTMs). The negotiations have officially begun, and the arena is set.
The People’s mandate: A Just transition or bust
If there was one unifying cry echoing through the halls today, it was for justice. A powerful, cross-cutting coalition—from the negotiating blocs of G77/China and AOSIS to the frontline voices of Indigenous Peoples, youth, and trade unions—threw its weight behind a single powerful demand: the establishment of a Just Transition Working Programme.
This isn’t just a talking point. It’s a demand for a formal mechanism, similar to the BAM (Beyond Ambition Mechanism) proposed by civil society, to ensure the shift to a green economy doesn’t leave the vulnerable behind. But this unprecedented unity immediately hit the same, old wall: Where’s the money? The question of finance looms over this proposal like a specter, setting the stage for a major showdown in tomorrow’s consultations.
This demand for justice wasn’t confined to the negotiation rooms. The energy on the ground was electric, with civil society driving the narrative:
- The Women & Gender Constituency staged a powerful action to ‘close the gap’ in the Gender Action Plan.
- Activists marched for climate and health.
- A provocative (carbon) casino illustrated the gamble our leaders are taking with our future.
- The day wrapped with a poignant Palestinian action, demanding ‘no seat for genociders’ at a summit dedicated to life.
The Elephant in the room: Colonialism in a green mask
While some debates were loud, the most critical warning was delivered with stark clarity. The Women & Gender Constituency and Indigenous Peoples’ constituencies highlighted the glaring blind spot in the energy transition: transition minerals.
“An energy transition built on reckless extraction is not a just transition,” they argued. “If it replicates the same patterns of colonialism and extractivism, it is merely swapping one crisis for another.” This should be common sense by now, yet the race for minerals continues to threaten the very communities who have protected our planet’s vital ecosystems for millennia.
New fronts, old battles
Keep your eyes on the horizon, because new pressure points are emerging fast:
- UTMs on the table: In a move that will send ripples to Brussels, China and business groups (BINGO) forced the issue of Unilateral Trade Measures into the open, challenging what they see as actions that create imbalance and undermine global cooperation.
- The debt crisis: Pressure is mounting to address the suffocating debt burden on developing nations, with calls for reform growing louder.
- Local power rises: The Local Government and Municipal Authorities (LGMA) constituency is a growing force to watch—and not just because California’s Gavin Newsom is on the ground, with his own presidential ambitions on display.
Glimmers of hope: Action beyond the talk
Amidst the political fray, tangible progress was also announced:
- The Belém Declaration on Hunger, Poverty, and Human-Centered Climate Action was adopted, pledging to put the world’s most vulnerable at the heart of policy, including expanding social protection.
- The new Just Resilience Action Platform (JRAP) launched, aiming to connect vital local projects—from mangrove restoration in Senegal to supporting Indigenous farmers in Brazil—with the finance they desperately need.
- The Early warnings for all initiative reported life-saving progress, with over 60% of countries now covered by early warning systems.
The stakes for tomorrow
Today was the warning shot. Tomorrow is the real test. The Presidency will report back on the most explosive issues: Article 9.1, the NDC ambition gap, UTMs, and transparency. This is where the rubber meets the road. The update could get messy, noisy and with casualties (as we say in Kenya) and the fractures we saw today could become chasms.
The starting gun fired a day early in Belém. The race for a livable future is on, and the world is watching to see if our leaders will run toward justice and ambition, or remain stuck at the starting line, arguing over the rules.Follow the action tomorrow: Key events include the Article 6.2 Ambition Dialogue, the Launch of the Global Youth Recommendations on NDCs, and the vibrant opening of the People’s Summit – a reminder that the demand for change flows as powerfully as the Guamá and Guajará rivers beside us.